Finding award space, meaning the seats you can actually book with your credit card points or airline miles, has gotten way harder. Economy is still kind of doable and easy to find. Business class has gotten a lot tougher in the last couple of years, and the reason is simple: more people are booking with points than ever, and more people are buying business class with cash than ever.
So supply is low and demand is high. When that happens, timing is what makes or breaks whether you find a good business class deal. I'd argue it's as important as flexibility, if not more.
The good news is that award space isn't random. It clusters at two ends of the calendar, and once you know where those two windows are, the whole thing gets a lot less frustrating. Let me break down the two sweet spots, what to do if your dates fall in between, and what this actually looks like when you go searching.
The 2 sweet spots for finding award space
There are basically two windows where airlines are most likely to have seats that are bookable with points, and that are actually good deals. It's either last minute or really far in advance. Everything in the middle is the hard part.
Sweet spot #1: Last minute
The first sweet spot is last minute, and this one surprises people.
Close to departure, airlines look at a cabin and basically go, “We're not going to sell these seats. No one's going to buy them in cash. Let's release them to be bookable with miles and points.” Airlines want cash-paying customers as much as possible, but points bookings are their fallback when the seats would otherwise fly empty. They'd rather get something out of a seat than nothing.
Last minute can mean two to three weeks out, sometimes within a week. Occasionally it's within 24 hours. And how many seats open up varies a lot. Sometimes it's one, sometimes it's two, sometimes it's six.
A real example: I booked six people, including me and my wife, the in-laws, and my parents, all in business class, all on the same Starlux flight from LAX to Taipei. The reason it happened was that I was keeping an eye out for last-minute award space. Originally, we were split across three flights on two days, departing from two different airports. Then last-minute award availability popped up, I found six seats on the same exact flight, and I changed everyone's ticket so all six of us flew in the same business class cabin.
The only reason that worked is that our whole family was flexible. My parents and in-laws are retired; we just had a kid, so my wife isn't working, and I do this for a living.
So you have to be really flexible with your time, and honestly with your job, if you're going to book the last-minute stuff.
It's not for everyone, and not everybody can pack up and leave the next day. It's also not guaranteed. Maybe the entire flight is full, and they never release any last-minute award space. So it's a bit of a gamble. But when it hits, it hits big.
Sweet spot #2: Far in advance (calendar open)
The second sweet spot is probably more suitable for families and anyone with a rigid schedule, and it's the more consistent one. That's booking way far in advance.
When I say far in advance, I mean 10, 11, 12 months out, right when the airline loads its flights into the calendar and makes the seats bookable with points. A lot of programs consistently release two seats, sometimes three or four, the moment the calendar opens. So when you see people online saying “I booked at calendar open,” that's what they mean. They're booking 350 to 360 days in advance, right when those flights get loaded and become bookable.
Think of it as a rolling window. If today is the 20th, then the calendar opens for a date about 360 days from now, and tomorrow it opens for the next day, and so on. Every day a new day of flights becomes bookable, and people are scooping up those business class seats the moment they appear. This is way more consistent than the last-minute stuff, because you know roughly when the seats will show up.
Different airline programs open their calendar on different days
A lot of people totally miss that some airline programs release award seats further in advance than others, even for the exact same flight.
Say you want to book Qatar Qsuites. Qatar Airways opens its own calendar around 361 days in advance. But if you want to book that same Qatar flight through American Airlines or British Airways Avios, their calendar opens later, around 355 days out or so. That means booking through Qatar directly gives you roughly a six-day head start. Six days later, someone logs on through British Airways to search for that same Qsuite flight, and it's already booked with no award availability left.
The Japanese airlines are another good example. ANA and Japan Airlines release space around 360 days out, and Japan is always popular, so you can pretty much guarantee some of that space gets scooped up at calendar open.
The real reason booking at calendar open works so well is that most people aren't willing to plan that far in advance. If you're willing to do the things that everyone else isn't willing to do, that's how you really maximize your points, especially with how competitive business class is now.
What to do when your dates fall in between
So what if you can't book last minute and you can't book way in advance? You're in the in-between area, and this is the tricky zone.
It's not impossible. Award space does drop every once in a while when you're seven or eight months out. But you have to be really vigilant. You have to check often, check consistently, and hope something pops up.
You also have to be flexible here. You might have to make some compromises: fly on a different date, fly into a different destination, or fly out of a different departure airport. I explain this in the video that covers flexibility in the miles and points game, which you can check out.
It's not ideal, but it's part of the game. Far in advance gives you the most consistency; last minute gives you a shot; and in between, you just have to pay attention.
Bottom line
Award space clusters at two ends of the calendar: last minute or far in advance. Last minute is a gamble, but it happens, and you can score some really good redemptions if you're flexible. Booking far in advance is the most consistent and gives you the best chance of finding a good deal. If you're stuck in between, stay vigilant and check often, and hopefully something comes up.
Timing is about as important as flexibility, sometimes even more. Get both right and you can find some really good redemptions and truly maximize your points.
This is part 3 of the Points Basics series. If you missed them, start with how to redeem your credit card points like a pro and the truth about booking business class with points. Next up in the series: partner airlines and alliances, and how to use them to stretch your points even further.
